I have almost as much excitement watching and anticipating the Oscar nominations than the telecast. This has been true for years. Heck, I remember bringing my Sony Watchman to my cafeteria in college so I wouldn't miss out on the nods in real time. Before that, I recorded the nominations (always set to ABC-7 - God rest your soul Joel Siegel), and spent an entire day of school wondering who got some love and who got the shaft from the Academy. Present day nothing has changed. I still get pumped, sip on my coffee, and quickly type the nods as they occur. That said, I can promise you I don't watch them on a Watchman. As a matter of fact, no one does. I am...wait for it... um... old?
This year's nods, which are set for Thursday morning, have potential for being the nuttiest ever. With 2013 being probably the strongest year we've had in film in over a decade, you can expect so many more WTF moments like last year's shocking Ben Affleck omission. Anyway, with that, let me take a stab at predicting each and every category. Why? I just want you to like me a little, or at the very least appreciate the time that went into it. Or maybe you'll be like how is this guy qualified to do this to which, I'll reply watch the E! Network and send me an apology. Anyway, here we go and hopefully none of what I just said will come off like a Jacqueline Bissett speech anytime, anywhere.
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
American Hustle
August Osage County
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
(Since up to ten films may be selected, any films after the top five I've ranked in order I think they'd get a nod. In other words if there are eight nominations, my #9 and #10 are moot. I'm going to say we'll have eight this year.)
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: I really don't see Mr. Banks getting a nod. If a tenth nominee is put out there, I wouldn't be shocked if it were Nebraska or a sympathy choice like Lee Daniels' The Butler which won't earn much love.
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: Philomena or Lee Daniels' The Butler
AMAZING IF IT SNEAKS IN: Fruitvale Station or Prisoners
Best Actor
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: This is the biggest category that can mess with everyone... more so than last year's Best Director category. There are so many performances here that can get snubbed, it's hard to know where to start. That said, I'll just say Leonardo DiCaprio can't keep getting the shaft so I pick him over Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her).
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: I think there is little room to be shocked here but one thing the Academy could do is nominate frontrunner McConaughey in the Best Supporting Actor category for his excellent performance in Mud. Doubtful.
AMAZING IF HE SNEAKS IN: Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station or Hugh Jackman for Prisoners
Best Actress
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August Osage County
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: Judi Dench doesn't get a nod because of the mild controversy of the film.
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: I think Amy Adams, who has always been relegated to the supporting actress category, will be the big one here. (Julie Delpy can suffice with another screenwriting nod.)
AMAZING IF SHE SNEAKS IN: It wouldn't be amazing if Emma Thompson - so great in Saving Mr. Banks - were nominated. It's just a name that needs to be in the conversation. Actually, I'm sure Adams' spot I gave her could go to Thompson but we'll see.
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Daniel Bruhl - Rush
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street or James Gandolfini - Enough Said
AMAZING IF HE SNEAKS IN: Aside from Gandolfini, I felt the most for Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Bobby Carnavale for Blue Jasmine would also make my day.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'O - 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: Oprah Winfrey for The Butler. I didn't even put her as one of the five but it'll be viewed as a huge one. Roberts may also fail to land a spot.
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyers Club
AMAZING IF SHE SNEAKS IN: Scarlett Johansson for either Her or Don Jon. I also am stunned Melissa Leo got zero mentions so far for Prisoners.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
BIGGEST POTENTIAL SNUB: Scorsese hands down.
POSSIBLE SURPRISE: Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
AMAZING IF HE SNEAKS IN: Spike Jonze - Her
--- The Rest without anymore of this guy's commentary (I'm pointing to myself, ma)
Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Enough Said
Her
Nebraska
Adapted Screenplay
August: Osage County
Blue is the Warmest Color
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
Original Song*
"Let It Go" from Frozen
"Happy" from Despicable Me 2
"Last Mile Home" from August: Osage County
"I See Fire" from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
"My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)" from 12 Years a Slave
* In order of suspected nominees (ie. some years don't have five nominees)
Original Score
Alex Ebert - All is Lost
Steven Price - Gravity
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
John Williams - The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer - 12 Years a Slave
Foreign Language Film
The Missing Picture - Cambodia
The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium
The Hunt - Denmark
Two Lives - Germany
The Great Beauty - Italy
Production Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Elysium
The Great Gatsby
Cinematography
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Prisoners
Inside Llewyn Davis
Editing
12 Years a Slave
Her
Captain Phillips
Rush
Gravity
Sound Editing
American Hustle
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
The Wolf of Wall Street
VFX
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
World War Z
Pacific Rim
Costumes
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Great Gatsby
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Make-Up/Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Lone Ranger
Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Armstrong Lie
Stories We Tell
20 Feet from Stardom
Animated Short
Get a Horse!
Floria Victoria
The Missing Scarf
Possessions *
Requiem for Romance*
(* - if five nominees)
Live Action Short
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)
Helium
Record/Play
Throat Song *
The Voorman Problem *
(* - if five nominees)
Documentary Short
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Recollections
SLOMO